Turkey draws road map with Egypt, but will Cairo follow it? Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in 2 weeks Anadolu Agency 16:48 31-Dec-20. It still has a strong interest in maintaining links with the EU and the US instead of membership in a league of autocrats. Russian Federation, Strategic partnerships, In 2018, the international watchdog Freedom House downgraded Turkey from “partly free” to “not free”. Their trade partnership was worth $26.1bn in 2019. and centres on tourism and agriculture: 6.7 million Russians visited Turkey in 2019. and Turkey will be the world’s second largest importer of Russian agro-industrial products in 2020. Ankara is aware of this and is acting accordingly. free” to “not free”. The Russo-Turkish wars (or Ottoman–Russian wars) were a series of twelve wars fought between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire between the 16th and 20th centuries. mentary elections and even capture a ma­jor­ity of seats in the Grand National Assem­bly. Yet, putting these two countries into the same basket and formulating policies accordingly is problematic. The US has issued sanctions against its fellow Nato ally Turkey over its deployment of a Russian-made missile defence system acquired last year. Opposition parties (CHP, HDP, and the Iyi Party) are relatively strong in Turkey, despite suppression. Although Russia will remain authori­tarian for some time to come, Turkey is approaching a historic crossroad: Either authoritarianism will be consolidated or some sort of return to parliamentary de­mocracy will prevail. Elites in both countries tend to espouse strong anti-hegemonic in­stincts, believe in state strength, and often resort to nationalism and religious con­servatism to draw a line against the West. The rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) proved to be a game changer. Checks on the executive branch, from the media all the way to par­lia­ment, have been dismantled. Yet, democ­ratisation faltered at two critical junc­tures. Although Russia and Turkey are rivals in several conflicts, including Libya and Syria, Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan seek to maintain good relations. Hence, the EU should strongly support pro-democracy forces in Turkey by increasing its support for civil society, intellectuals, and the remaining independent media. It was one of the longest series of military conflicts in European history. Comparing Erdoğan and Putin is nothing new. Then, in the 1996 presidential elections, large-scale manipu­lation prevented the transfer of power to Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Com­munist Party of the Russian Federation. Turkey also defied Russia by using drones and mercenaries to recently help Azerbaijan reconquer the Nagorno-Karabakh region from Armenia. Expectations that he might, second, that the Motherland, whether Russia, and Libya. Putin fails to inspire much enthusiasm, but a majority of citizens see no credible alternative. At a time when Russia and Turkey are engaged in a wide range of economic and military projects—the South Stream pipeline, joint development of the S … Putin and Erdoğan have turned into a diplomatic double act, with the recent agree­ment for a ceasefire in Idlib being the latest example. That has started to happen only recent­ly. (CNN) Turkey and Russia announced a ceasefire in Idlib, Syria's last opposition enclave on Thursday, agreeing to establish a security corridor with joint patrols. But, at the same time, their willingness to use military force has seen them sideline EU and Nato powers in the principal conflicts shaping competition for power in the Mediterranean. Russian Foreign Minister Calls on UN to Fill UN Special Representative Post Vacancy. Turkey's relationship with Russia is historically fraught with suspicion and friction. Though Putin’s regime is resilient, consti­tu­tional amendments do show it is concerned about its long-term survival. In the 2000s, Putin changed the rules, becoming an indispensable arbiter for clans in government: e.g. the state of emergency during the 2017 constitutional referendum or the outbreak of war with the PKK during the November 2015 legislative elections. Russia has almost no democratic record. As the purchase of S-400 missile system illustrates, there has been an important change in tide, both in U.S.-Turkish and in Turkish-Russian relations. For further information on our quality control pro­cedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Ludwigkirchplatz 3–410719 BerlinTelephone +49 30 880 07-0Fax +49 30 880 07-100www.swp-berlin.orgswp@swp-berlin.org, Dimitar Bechev, The EU has a high stake in this matter, and thus it needs to take a proactive stance in favour of pro-democracy forces. According to the preliminary data, the next few days suggest exciting developments in Russian-Turkish relations, which seem to have entered a new path after the air operation that targeted a training center for the militants of the Levant Legion (Faylaq Sham) loyal to Erdogan near the borders with Turkey, which adopts this faction and all the factions in the region. Days before, on 11 February, magistrates in the Russian town of Penza sentenced seven young left-wing activists to 6 to 18 years in prison. Turkey became exposed to Western liberal norms thanks to NATO and association with the European Economic Community. After winning Ankara and Istan­bul, the united opposition may – theoretically – repeat its success at the next par­lia­mentary elections and even capture a ma­jor­ity of seats in the Grand National Assem­bly. The idea that the two countries could be … With a twist of irony, it is now Russia that may break this alliance. Yet, Turkey is, and will remain, different from Russia. Ankara is not coming into Mos­cow’s geopolitical orbit either. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2020. Turkey, Russia maintain delicate balance in three hotspots. However, Russia as well as Turkey have proven flexible in their day-to-day conduct­ing of foreign policy. mayors from the pro-Kurdish HDP, is part of the toolbox. Op­po­sition parties were co-opted by the Krem­lin while opponents, such as oligarchs Boris Berezovsky and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, had their business empires destroyed and assets redistributed to pro-regime tycoons. Hence, it is critical to understand the gravity of the current time frame and take a pro-active stance in favour of Turkish democracy. Ankara’s assertive foreign policy is an increasing factor in broad geopolitical dispute. Kavala was promptly taken back into custody, this time on charges of espionage and links to the failed coup in 2016. Turkey continues to expand its deadly drone capabilities, report reveals. Most read . "Relations between Russia and Turkey are self-sustainable and self-sufficient; they don’t depend on someone’s aggressive and hostile actions and whims," Lavrov said on Tuesday. The strength of the opposition, the structure of the econo­my, and the nature of linkages to the West make it unlikely that Turkey will consoli­date an authoritarian system resembling Russia’s. The Kremlin propaganda machine blew this argument out of pro­portion after Putin’s 2012 return to the presidency, and especially with the seizure of Crimea and the war in Ukraine. The construction of the Turkish-Russian joint monitoring center will be completed in two weeks, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on Dec. 31. NAT 9th January 2021. Putin’s third term as president (2012–8) saw Russia drifting further into authoritar­ianism. For decades, parties of various ideological stripes have vied for votes in competitive elections, bargained, and entered into coalitions to share spoils and governance responsibilities. That does not imply that, in contrast to Turkey, the Russian polity is destined to remain authori­tarian. Their trade partnership was worth $26.1bn in 2019. and centres on tourism and agriculture: 6.7 million Russians visited Turkey in 2019. and Turkey will be the world’s second largest importer of Russian agro-industrial products in 2020. What Erdoğan does – similar to his role model Sultan Abdulhamid II – is play Russia against the West, and vice versa, in pursuit of maxi­mum strategic autonomy. World An Assertive Turkey Muscles Into Russia’s Backyard Erdogan extended support for Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, a rare foray into Kremlin’s sphere of influence In Libya a conflict that the US was once … Through economic and military aid, President Harry Truman tried to prevent Turkey and Greece from falling under Soviet influence in 1947. These differences bring into question the argument that Turkey and Russia constitute an autocratic bloc. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in two weeks: Aliyev BAKU- Anadolu Agency. Moscow also facilitated contacts between Ankara and Damascus on the Kurdish issue on different platforms, including through Algeria." Electoral success propelled Erdoğan to power and ultimately enabled him to elimi­nate constraints to his rule. In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. What also matters is the electoral culture. Turkey, Politically, the two countries have a similar reading of world affairs, based on suspicion of and frustration with the West; both have an interest in maintaining a multipolar world order that helps them pursue their respective ambitions. Such support should not be only at the discourse level, but must be augmented by concrete measures to support pro-democ­racy forces in Turkey. In the Turkish version of the events, Russia has essentially accepted, willy-nilly, Turkey as a co-equal in the South Caucasus, which is supposedly part of Moscow's "near abroad." 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